Spartak Trnava W 0–7 Spartak Myjava W

Spartak Trnava W

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 5

Spartak Myjava W

3/9/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 16Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Spartak Trnava W21%

×Draw17%

Spartak Myjava W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Trnava WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.98

Spartak Trnava W

1.76

Spartak Myjava W

2.98

Spartak Myjava W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

2.82

creates per match

4.19

1.76

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W

2.82

Spartak Myjava W

4.19

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W

1.76

Spartak Myjava W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw

38%

Spartak Trnava W or Spartak Myjava W

83%

Draw or Spartak Myjava W

79%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

10%

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

83%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

26%

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals

95%

Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals

79%

Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

26%

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.76

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more

21%

level

17%

Spartak Myjava W scores more

62%

Spartak Myjava W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff