Spartak Myjava W 4–1 Spartak Trnava W

Spartak Myjava W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Trnava W

8/31/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 4Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Spartak Myjava W87%

×Draw8%

Spartak Trnava W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Myjava WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.33

1.06

Spartak Myjava W

4.33

Spartak Trnava W

1.06

Spartak Myjava W creates 308% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

6.13

creates per match

1.55

0.58

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Spartak Myjava W

6.13

Spartak Trnava W

1.55

allows per match

Spartak Myjava W

0.58

Spartak Trnava W

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava W ↓

Spartak Trnava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava W or draw

95%

Spartak Myjava W or Spartak Trnava W

92%

Draw or Spartak Trnava W

13%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+

74%

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals

98%

Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals

92%

Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals

77%

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)

95%

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava W at home — creates 6.13, concedes 0.58 · 69 matches

Spartak Trnava W away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava W attack 6.13 + Spartak Trnava W defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 4.33

Spartak Trnava W attack 1.55 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Spartak Myjava W scores more

87%

level

8%

Spartak Trnava W scores more

5%

Spartak Myjava W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff