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Spartak Trnava W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
FT
4 – 2
Nitra W
Nitra W
9/26/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 9Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Trnava W61%
×Draw17%
Nitra W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava W
2.97
Nitra W
1.78

Spartak Trnava W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W
2.82
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W
1.76
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw
78%
Spartak Trnava W or Nitra W
83%
Draw or Nitra W
39%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
42%
Nitra W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
95%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
79%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
56%
Nitra W 1+ goals
83%
Nitra W 2+ goals
53%
Nitra W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
74%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.97

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more
61%
level
17%
Nitra W scores more
22%

Spartak Trnava W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Trnava W vs Nitra W

Spartak Trnava W beat Nitra W 4-2 in I Liga - Women on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Športový areál ŠK Blava in Jaslovské Bohunice.