Spartak Trnava W 4–1 GFC Topoľčany W

Spartak Trnava W

FT

4 – 1

GFC Topoľčany W

8/10/2022

I Liga - Women · Round 2Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spartak Trnava W73%

×Draw14%

GFC Topoľčany W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Trnava WExpected goals in this matchGFC Topoľčany W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.41

1.48

Spartak Trnava W

3.41

GFC Topoľčany W

1.48

Spartak Trnava W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

2.82

creates per match

1.19

1.76

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W

2.82

GFC Topoľčany W

1.19

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W

1.76

GFC Topoľčany W

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw

86%

Spartak Trnava W or GFC Topoľčany W

86%

Draw or GFC Topoľčany W

27%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

54%

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

96%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

85%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

64%

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

77%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

43%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

84%

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.41

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more

73%

level

14%

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

14%

Spartak Trnava W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff