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Spartak Trnava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
11/2/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spartak Trnava W72%
×Draw14%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava W
3.35
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.49

Spartak Trnava W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 55 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W
2.82
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W
1.76
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw
86%
Spartak Trnava W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
86%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
28%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
96%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
84%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
63%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
77%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
44%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
84%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.35

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more
72%
level
14%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
14%

Spartak Trnava W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Trnava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Spartak Trnava W beat Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2-1 in I Liga - Women on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Športový areál ŠK Blava in Jaslovské Bohunice.