Spartak Trnava 2–0 Skalica: Result & Stats

Spartak Trnava

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skalica

P. Azango 37'

K. Ofori 25'

11/30/2024

League #332 · Round 16CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Trnava52%

×Draw29%

Skalica19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak TrnavaExpected goals in this matchSkalica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.66

Spartak Trnava

1.29

Skalica

0.66

Spartak Trnava creates 95% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.75

0.56

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Spartak Trnava

1.33

Skalica

0.75

allows per match

Spartak Trnava

0.56

Skalica

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Skalica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

Skalica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw

81%

Spartak Trnava or Skalica

71%

Draw or Skalica

48%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

24%

Skalica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

14%

Skalica 1+ goals

48%

Skalica 2+ goals

14%

Skalica 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

73%

Skalica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Skalica away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 1.33 + Skalica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Skalica attack 0.75 + Spartak Trnava defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more

52%

level

29%

Skalica scores more

19%

Spartak Trnava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Kratochvíl

Spartak Trnava · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

Yann Michael Yao

8'

Lukáš Štetina

16'

Roman Procházka

25'

K. Ofori↳ M. Kratochvíl

37'

P. Azango↳ E. Daniel

46'

A. Gaži← A. Sobczyk

66'

M. Ujlaky← L. Štetina

66'

M. Hollý← M. Mášík

66'

M. Fábry← Y. Yao

72'

74'

79'

85'

85'

M. Černek← L. Leginus

86'

M. Šulek← L. Holík

87'

R. Pich← P. Azango

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakSkalica

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots8

8Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target2

5Off Target4

5Blocked2

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

433Total Passes384

363Accurate Passes303

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1