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Spartak Trnava vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Trnava67%
×Draw17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava
2.72
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.29

Spartak Trnava creates 111% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava
3.00
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Spartak Trnava
1.25
Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.44

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw
84%
Spartak Trnava or Lokomotíva Zvolen
83%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
33%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
46%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
93%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
75%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
50%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
80%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 3.00 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.72

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more
67%
level
17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
16%

Spartak Trnava at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Spartak Trnava 4–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Spartak Trnava beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.