Spartak Subotica W 2–3 Atletico Madrid W

Spartak Subotica W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Madrid W

9/12/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsGradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Subotica W58%

×Draw18%

Atletico Madrid W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Subotica WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.85

Spartak Subotica W

2.83

Atletico Madrid W

1.85

Spartak Subotica W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

4.10

creates per match

2.11

1.60

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Spartak Subotica W

4.10

Atletico Madrid W

2.11

allows per match

Spartak Subotica W

1.60

Atletico Madrid W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Subotica W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Subotica W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Spartak Subotica W or draw

75%

Spartak Subotica W or Atletico Madrid W

82%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

42%

Winning margin

Spartak Subotica W wins by 2+

38%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartak Subotica W 1+ goals

94%

Spartak Subotica W 2+ goals

77%

Spartak Subotica W 3+ goals

53%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

55%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Spartak Subotica W (draw refunded)

70%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Subotica W at home — creates 4.10, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Subotica W attack 4.10 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.83

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.11 + Spartak Subotica W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Spartak Subotica W scores more

58%

level

18%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

25%

Spartak Subotica W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Spartak Subotica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff