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Spartak Subotica W vs Anenii Noi W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Spartak Subotica W
Spartak Subotica W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anenii Noi W
Anenii Noi W
11/4/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · R60310Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Subotica W95%
×Draw4%
Anenii Noi W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Subotica W
5.38
Anenii Noi W
0.80

Spartak Subotica W creates 573% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spartak Subotica W
4.10
Anenii Noi W
0.00

allows per match

Spartak Subotica W
1.60
Anenii Noi W
6.67

finishing

Spartak Subotica W+0.00on par
Anenii Noi W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Subotica W ↓

Anenii Noi W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Spartak Subotica W or draw
98%
Spartak Subotica W or Anenii Noi W
96%
Draw or Anenii Noi W
5%

Winning margin

Spartak Subotica W wins by 2+
86%
Anenii Noi W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Spartak Subotica W 1+ goals
99%
Spartak Subotica W 2+ goals
96%
Spartak Subotica W 3+ goals
86%
Anenii Noi W 1+ goals
55%
Anenii Noi W 2+ goals
19%
Anenii Noi W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Subotica W (draw refunded)
98%
Anenii Noi W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Subotica W at home — creates 4.10, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Anenii Noi W away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Subotica W attack 4.10 + Anenii Noi W defence 6.67 → ÷2 → 5.38

Anenii Noi W attack 0.00 + Spartak Subotica W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Spartak Subotica W scores more
95%
level
4%
Anenii Noi W scores more
2%

Spartak Subotica W at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Spartak Subotica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Subotica W vs Anenii Noi W

Spartak Subotica W beat Anenii Noi W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Subotica.