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Spartak Soběslav vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
2 – 1
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
8/25/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 3Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav (Soběslav)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spartak Soběslav67%
×Draw19%
Sokol Čížová14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.18
Sokol Čížová
0.89

Spartak Soběslav creates 145% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
86%
Spartak Soběslav or Sokol Čížová
81%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
33%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
43%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
64%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
37%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
59%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
22%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
82%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.18

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
67%
level
19%
Sokol Čížová scores more
14%

Spartak Soběslav at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Spartak Soběslav 2–1 Sokol Čížová

Spartak Soběslav beat Sokol Čížová 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav (Soběslav).