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Spartak Soběslav vs Slavoj Český Krumlov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
6/1/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Spartak Soběslav61%
×Draw19%
Slavoj Český Krumlov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.44
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.35

Spartak Soběslav creates 81% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 60 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.63

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Slavoj Český Krumlov
2.22

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Slavoj Český Krumlov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
80%
Spartak Soběslav or Slavoj Český Krumlov
81%
Draw or Slavoj Český Krumlov
39%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
39%
Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
70%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
43%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
74%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
39%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
75%
Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.44

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.63 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
61%
level
19%
Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
20%

Spartak Soběslav at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Spartak Soběslav 3–0 Slavoj Český Krumlov

Spartak Soběslav beat Slavoj Český Krumlov 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav in Soběslav.