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Spartak Soběslav vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
PST
14:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 19Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav (Soběslav)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Spartak Soběslav34%
×Draw21%
Přeštice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
1.76
Přeštice
2.06

Přeštice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
55%
Spartak Soběslav or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
66%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
17%
Přeštice wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
52%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
26%
Přeštice 1+ goals
87%
Přeštice 2+ goals
61%
Přeštice 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
43%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.76

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
34%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
45%

Přeštice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Soběslav vs Přeštice — Match Preview

Spartak Soběslav face Přeštice on March 29, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Spartak Soběslav host Přeštice at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav (Soběslav).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.