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Přeštice vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
5/7/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 24Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice63%
×Draw19%
Spartak Soběslav18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.34
Spartak Soběslav
1.16

Přeštice creates 102% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
82%
Přeštice or Spartak Soběslav
81%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
37%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
41%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
90%
Přeštice 2+ goals
67%
Přeštice 3+ goals
41%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
78%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Přeštice scores more
63%
level
19%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
18%

Přeštice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Přeštice 2–1 Spartak Soběslav

Přeštice beat Spartak Soběslav 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.