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Spartak Soběslav vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
8/27/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Spartak Soběslav65%
×Draw18%
Otava Katovice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.47
Otava Katovice
1.21

Spartak Soběslav creates 104% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
83%
Spartak Soběslav or Otava Katovice
82%
Draw or Otava Katovice
35%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
43%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
70%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
44%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
70%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
34%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
79%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.47

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
65%
level
18%
Otava Katovice scores more
17%

Spartak Soběslav at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Spartak Soběslav 3–0 Otava Katovice

Spartak Soběslav beat Otava Katovice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav in Soběslav.