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Spartak Soběslav vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
8/31/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Spartak Soběslav69%
×Draw17%
Jindřichův Hradec14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.58
Jindřichův Hradec
1.10

Spartak Soběslav creates 135% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
86%
Spartak Soběslav or Jindřichův Hradec
83%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
31%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
47%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
92%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
72%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
67%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
30%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
83%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
69%
level
17%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
14%

Spartak Soběslav at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Soběslav 3 – 1 Jindřichův Hradec

Spartak Soběslav beat Jindřichův Hradec 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav in Soběslav.