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Spartak Plovdiv vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
3 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
5/8/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Stadion Todor Diev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv87%
×Draw9%
Vereya Stara Zagora4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
3.51
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.70

Spartak Plovdiv creates 401% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 36 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
96%
Spartak Plovdiv or Vereya Stara Zagora
91%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
13%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
71%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
97%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
86%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
66%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
50%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
16%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
95%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.51

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
87%
level
9%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
4%

Spartak Plovdiv at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 3–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Spartak Plovdiv beat Vereya Stara Zagora 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Todor Diev in Plovdiv.