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Spartak Plovdiv vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
4/28/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 32Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv75%
×Draw15%
Sokol Markovo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
2.58
Sokol Markovo
0.79

Spartak Plovdiv creates 227% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 98 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
91%
Spartak Plovdiv or Sokol Markovo
85%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
25%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
54%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
92%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
72%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
47%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
55%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
19%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
89%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.58

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
75%
level
15%
Sokol Markovo scores more
9%

Spartak Plovdiv at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 4–0 Sokol Markovo

Spartak Plovdiv beat Sokol Markovo 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.