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Spartak Plovdiv vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
11/19/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv65%
×Draw19%
Rozova dolina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
2.23
Rozova dolina
0.99

Spartak Plovdiv creates 125% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 136 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
84%
Spartak Plovdiv or Rozova dolina
81%
Draw or Rozova dolina
35%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
42%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
65%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
38%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
63%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
26%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
81%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.23

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
65%
level
19%
Rozova dolina scores more
16%

Spartak Plovdiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 3–0 Rozova dolina

Spartak Plovdiv beat Rozova dolina 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.