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Rozova dolina vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
5/25/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Rozova dolina48%
×Draw23%
Spartak Plovdiv28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
1.76
Spartak Plovdiv
1.29

Rozova dolina creates 36% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 92 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
72%
Rozova dolina or Spartak Plovdiv
77%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
52%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
26%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
83%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
52%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
26%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.76

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
48%
level
23%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
28%

Rozova dolina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Rozova dolina 0–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Spartak Plovdiv beat Rozova dolina 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sevtopolis in Kazanlak.