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Spartak Plovdiv vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
10 – 1
HT: 6 – 1
Karnobat
Karnobat
5/19/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv76%
×Draw15%
Karnobat9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
2.65
Karnobat
0.82

Spartak Plovdiv creates 223% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 118 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
91%
Spartak Plovdiv or Karnobat
85%
Draw or Karnobat
24%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
54%
Karnobat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
93%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
74%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
48%
Karnobat 1+ goals
56%
Karnobat 2+ goals
20%
Karnobat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
89%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.65

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
76%
level
15%
Karnobat scores more
9%

Spartak Plovdiv at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Plovdiv vs Karnobat

Spartak Plovdiv beat Karnobat 10-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.