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Spartak Plovdiv vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
11/30/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 19Vekta complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv69%
×Draw17%
FK Svilengrad14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
2.56
FK Svilengrad
1.07

Spartak Plovdiv creates 139% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 18 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
86%
Spartak Plovdiv or FK Svilengrad
83%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
31%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
47%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
92%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
72%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
46%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
66%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
29%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
83%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.56

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
69%
level
17%
FK Svilengrad scores more
14%

Spartak Plovdiv at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Plovdiv vs FK Svilengrad

Spartak Plovdiv beat FK Svilengrad 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Vekta complex in Plovdiv.