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Spartak Plovdiv vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
21 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
8/20/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 3Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv82%
×Draw11%
FK Sliven7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
3.32
FK Sliven
0.91

Spartak Plovdiv creates 265% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
93%
Spartak Plovdiv or FK Sliven
89%
Draw or FK Sliven
18%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
64%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
96%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
84%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
62%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
60%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
23%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
92%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.32

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
82%
level
11%
FK Sliven scores more
7%

Spartak Plovdiv at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 21–0 FK Sliven

Spartak Plovdiv beat FK Sliven 21-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.