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Spartak Pleven vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
5/20/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven46%
×Draw28%
Strumska Slava26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.33
Strumska Slava
0.94

Spartak Pleven creates 41% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
74%
Spartak Pleven or Strumska Slava
72%
Draw or Strumska Slava
54%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
21%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
38%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
15%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
61%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
24%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
63%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
46%
level
28%
Strumska Slava scores more
26%

Spartak Pleven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Pleven 1–1 Strumska Slava

Spartak Pleven and Strumska Slava drew 1-1 in Second League on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.