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Spartak Pleven vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
8 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
5/19/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 32Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Spartak Pleven79%
×Draw13%
Parva atomna7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
2.75
Parva atomna
0.71

Spartak Pleven creates 287% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 47 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
2.92
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
0.58
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
93%
Spartak Pleven or Parva atomna
87%
Draw or Parva atomna
21%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
59%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
93%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
75%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
51%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
51%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
16%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
92%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.75

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
79%
level
13%
Parva atomna scores more
7%

Spartak Pleven at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Spartak Pleven 8–1 Parva atomna

Spartak Pleven beat Parva atomna 8-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.