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Spartak Pleven vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
0 – 1
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
5/9/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 30Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Pleven47%
×Draw24%
Levski Lom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.69
Levski Lom
1.29

Spartak Pleven creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
2.92
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
0.58
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
71%
Spartak Pleven or Levski Lom
76%
Draw or Levski Lom
53%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
25%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
24%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
72%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
37%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
61%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
47%
level
24%
Levski Lom scores more
29%

Spartak Pleven at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Levski Lom

Levski Lom beat Spartak Pleven 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.