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Spartak Pleven vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
CANC
15:00
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
5/16/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 33Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Pleven42%
×Draw28%
Kariana Erden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.30
Kariana Erden
1.08

Spartak Pleven creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
69%
Spartak Pleven or Kariana Erden
72%
Draw or Kariana Erden
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
19%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
14%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
66%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
29%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
57%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
42%
level
28%
Kariana Erden scores more
31%

Spartak Pleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Pleven host Kariana Erden

May 16, 2020: Spartak Pleven take on Kariana Erden in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartak Pleven host Kariana Erden at Pleven Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.