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Spartak Pleven vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
Preview
16:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
11/7/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion Pleven
Big match
44%
Spartak Pleven
model favours
44%28%28%

Spartak Pleven score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven44%
×Draw28%
Dobrudzha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.30
Dobrudzha
0.98

Spartak Pleven creates 33% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 101 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
72%
Spartak Pleven or Dobrudzha
72%
Draw or Dobrudzha
56%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
20%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
14%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
62%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
26%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
61%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
44%
level
28%
Dobrudzha scores more
28%

Spartak Pleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 73% of Spartak Pleven’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pleven
LLWLL
Dobrudzha
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Pleven host Dobrudzha

November 7, 2026: Spartak Pleven take on Dobrudzha in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartak Pleven host Dobrudzha at Stadion Pleven.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.