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Dobrudzha vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
2/15/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dobrudzha52%
×Draw27%
Spartak Pleven21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.46
Spartak Pleven
0.83

Dobrudzha creates 76% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 80 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
79%
Dobrudzha or Spartak Pleven
73%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
48%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
26%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
77%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
43%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
56%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
20%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
71%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
52%
level
27%
Spartak Pleven scores more
21%

Dobrudzha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dobrudzha 1–0 Spartak Pleven

Dobrudzha beat Spartak Pleven 1-0 in Second League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.