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Spartak Pleven vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
5/24/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 38Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Pleven37%
×Draw27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.23
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 71 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
64%
Spartak Pleven or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
63%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
16%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
35%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
13%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
34%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
51%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
37%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
36%

Spartak Pleven at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Spartak Pleven beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1-0 in Second League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.