Spartak Pleven 2–0 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

2 – 0

Botev Lukovit

10/21/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 12Pleven Stadium (Pleven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Pleven75%

×Draw16%

Botev Lukovit9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.69

Spartak Pleven

2.42

Botev Lukovit

0.69

Spartak Pleven creates 251% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

2.92

creates per match

0.80

0.58

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

2.92

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

0.58

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

91%

Spartak Pleven or Botev Lukovit

84%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

25%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

52%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

91%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

69%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

43%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

50%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

15%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

90%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.42

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

75%

level

16%

Botev Lukovit scores more

9%

Spartak Pleven at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff