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Spartak Nalchik vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
6/12/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spartak Nalchik42%
×Draw29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.23
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.96

Spartak Nalchik creates 28% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 16 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.34
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.11
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
71%
Spartak Nalchik or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
71%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
19%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
35%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
13%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
62%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
25%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
60%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
42%
level
29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
29%

Spartak Nalchik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Spartak Nalchik 3–0 Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Spartak Nalchik beat Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Nal'chik.