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Spartak Nalchik vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
6/15/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spartak Nalchik33%
×Draw26%
SKA Rostov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.27
SKA Rostov
1.45

SKA Rostov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 58 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.34
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.11
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
59%
Spartak Nalchik or SKA Rostov
74%
Draw or SKA Rostov
67%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
14%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
77%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
42%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
44%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
33%
level
26%
SKA Rostov scores more
41%

SKA Rostov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Nalchik vs SKA Rostov

Spartak Nalchik and SKA Rostov drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 1 on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Nal'chik.