SKA Rostov 3–1 Spartak Nalchik: Result & Stats

SKA Rostov

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Nalchik

5/18/2023

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

SKA Rostov47%

×Draw26%

Spartak Nalchik27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKA RostovExpected goals in this matchSpartak Nalchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

SKA Rostov

1.50

Spartak Nalchik

1.06

SKA Rostov creates 42% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 96 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

SKA Rostov

1.67

Spartak Nalchik

1.24

allows per match

SKA Rostov

0.88

Spartak Nalchik

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Spartak Nalchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw

73%

SKA Rostov or Spartak Nalchik

74%

Draw or Spartak Nalchik

53%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+

24%

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals

78%

SKA Rostov 2+ goals

44%

SKA Rostov 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)

64%

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SKA Rostov scores more

47%

level

26%

Spartak Nalchik scores more

27%

SKA Rostov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff