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Spartak Nalchik vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
8/2/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Spartak Nalchik34%
×Draw28%
Kuban Kholding38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.16
Kuban Kholding
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 91 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.34
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.11
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
62%
Spartak Nalchik or Kuban Kholding
72%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
66%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
14%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
11%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
71%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
35%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
48%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
34%
level
28%
Kuban Kholding scores more
38%

Kuban Kholding at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Spartak Nalchik 1–1 Kuban Kholding

Spartak Nalchik and Kuban Kholding drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 2, 2025.