Spartak Nalchik 2–2 Dinamo Stavropol

Spartak Nalchik

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Stavropol

3/30/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Nalchik41%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Stavropol32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak NalchikExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Spartak Nalchik

1.36

Dinamo Stavropol

1.17

Spartak Nalchik creates 16% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 92 away

1.34

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.34

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.11

Dinamo Stavropol

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw

68%

Spartak Nalchik or Dinamo Stavropol

73%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

56%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more

41%

level

27%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

32%

Spartak Nalchik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff