Spartak Nalchik 3–1 Anzhi: Result & Stats

Spartak Nalchik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Anzhi

4/17/2022

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Nalchik38%

×Draw26%

Anzhi36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak NalchikExpected goals in this matchAnzhi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

Spartak Nalchik

1.36

Anzhi

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 32 away

1.34

creates per match

1.56

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.34

Anzhi

1.56

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.11

Anzhi

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Anzhi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw

64%

Spartak Nalchik or Anzhi

74%

Draw or Anzhi

62%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

17%

Anzhi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

16%

Anzhi 1+ goals

74%

Anzhi 2+ goals

38%

Anzhi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

51%

Anzhi (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more

38%

level

26%

Anzhi scores more

36%

Spartak Nalchik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff