Spartak Nalchik 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Spartak Nalchik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

7/16/2023

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spartak Nalchik59%

×Draw22%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak NalchikExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.95

Spartak Nalchik

1.88

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.95

Spartak Nalchik creates 98% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 58 away

1.34

creates per match

0.78

1.11

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.34

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.78

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.11

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw

81%

Spartak Nalchik or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

78%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

41%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

35%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

85%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

56%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

61%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

25%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

76%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more

59%

level

22%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

19%

Spartak Nalchik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff