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Spartak Myjava W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
FT
4 – 0
Nitra W
Nitra W
8/21/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 4Umelá tráva Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Myjava W87%
×Draw8%
Nitra W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava W
4.63
Nitra W
1.19

Spartak Myjava W creates 289% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava W
6.13
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Spartak Myjava W
0.58
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava W or draw
95%
Spartak Myjava W or Nitra W
92%
Draw or Nitra W
13%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
74%
Nitra W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
99%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
93%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
80%
Nitra W 1+ goals
70%
Nitra W 2+ goals
33%
Nitra W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
95%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava W at home — creates 6.13, concedes 0.58 · 69 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava W attack 6.13 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 4.63

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Spartak Myjava W scores more
87%
level
8%
Nitra W scores more
5%

Spartak Myjava W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Spartak Myjava W 4–0 Nitra W

Spartak Myjava W beat Nitra W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Myjava in Myjava.