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Spartak Myjava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
FT
10 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3/16/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 17Umelá tráva Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spartak Myjava W92%
×Draw5%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava W
5.01
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
0.90

Spartak Myjava W creates 457% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava W
6.13
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Spartak Myjava W
0.58
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava W or draw
97%
Spartak Myjava W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
95%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
8%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
82%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
99%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
95%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
84%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
59%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
23%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
97%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava W at home — creates 6.13, concedes 0.58 · 69 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava W attack 6.13 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 5.01

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Spartak Myjava W scores more
92%
level
5%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
3%

Spartak Myjava W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Myjava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Spartak Myjava W beat Dukla Banská Bystrica W 10-1 in I Liga - Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Myjava in Myjava.