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Spartak Myjava vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
CANC
15:00
Nitra II
Nitra II
6/6/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spartak Myjava71%
×Draw17%
Nitra II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
2.35
Nitra II
0.82

Spartak Myjava creates 187% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
89%
Spartak Myjava or Nitra II
83%
Draw or Nitra II
29%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
48%
Nitra II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
90%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
68%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
41%
Nitra II 1+ goals
56%
Nitra II 2+ goals
20%
Nitra II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
86%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
71%
level
17%
Nitra II scores more
11%

Spartak Myjava at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Myjava face Nitra II (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Spartak Myjava hosting Nitra II. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.