Spartak Myjava 2–0 Kalná nad Hronom: Result & Stats

Spartak Myjava

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kalná nad Hronom

4/30/2022

3. liga - West · West - 25Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Spartak Myjava60%

×Draw22%

Kalná nad Hronom18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MyjavaExpected goals in this matchKalná nad Hronom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.95

Spartak Myjava

1.94

Kalná nad Hronom

0.95

Spartak Myjava creates 104% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 31 away

2.27

creates per match

1.10

0.79

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Spartak Myjava

2.27

Kalná nad Hronom

1.10

allows per match

Spartak Myjava

0.79

Kalná nad Hronom

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw

82%

Spartak Myjava or Kalná nad Hronom

78%

Draw or Kalná nad Hronom

40%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+

36%

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals

86%

Spartak Myjava 2+ goals

58%

Spartak Myjava 3+ goals

30%

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals

61%

Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals

25%

Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)

77%

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more

60%

level

22%

Kalná nad Hronom scores more

18%

Spartak Myjava at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff