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Spartak Myjava vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
11/15/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Spartak Myjava54%
×Draw23%
Hamsik Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
1.84
Hamsik Academy
1.11

Spartak Myjava creates 66% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
77%
Spartak Myjava or Hamsik Academy
77%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
46%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
31%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
28%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
67%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
30%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
70%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
54%
level
23%
Hamsik Academy scores more
23%

Spartak Myjava at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Spartak Myjava 0–1 Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Spartak Myjava 1-0 in 3. liga - West on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.