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Spartak Myjava vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
8/12/20222. liga2. liga · Round 5Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Myjava49%
×Draw24%
Dubnica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
1.69
Dubnica
1.21

Spartak Myjava creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
1.50
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
1.23
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
73%
Spartak Myjava or Dubnica
76%
Draw or Dubnica
51%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
26%
Dubnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
24%
Dubnica 1+ goals
70%
Dubnica 2+ goals
34%
Dubnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
64%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 1.50 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
49%
level
24%
Dubnica scores more
27%

Spartak Myjava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Spartak Myjava 3–1 Dubnica

Spartak Myjava beat Dubnica 3-1 in 2. liga on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.