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Spartak Myjava vs Dolný Kubín — 2. liga 2019

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
9/2/20222. liga2. liga · Round 8Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Myjava62%
×Draw21%
Dolný Kubín17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
2.04
Dolný Kubín
0.96

Spartak Myjava creates 113% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
1.50
Dolný Kubín
0.70

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
1.23
Dolný Kubín
2.57

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
83%
Spartak Myjava or Dolný Kubín
79%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
38%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
38%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
87%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
60%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
33%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
62%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
25%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
78%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 1.50 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
62%
level
21%
Dolný Kubín scores more
17%

Spartak Myjava at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Spartak Myjava 2–1 Dolný Kubín

Spartak Myjava beat Dolný Kubín 2-1 in 2. liga on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.