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Spartak Moskva W vs Zenit W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Spartak Moskva W
Spartak Moskva W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit W
Zenit W
7/21/2024Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 14Futbol'noe pole 1 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moskva W38%
×Draw26%
Zenit W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva W
1.39
Zenit W
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva W
2.27
Zenit W
2.01

allows per match

Spartak Moskva W
0.73
Zenit W
0.51

finishing

Spartak Moskva W+0.00on par
Zenit W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva W ↓

Zenit W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva W or draw
63%
Spartak Moskva W or Zenit W
74%
Draw or Zenit W
62%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva W wins by 2+
17%
Zenit W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva W 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Moskva W 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Moskva W 3+ goals
16%
Zenit W 1+ goals
75%
Zenit W 2+ goals
40%
Zenit W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva W (draw refunded)
51%
Zenit W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Zenit W away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.51 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva W attack 2.27 + Zenit W defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zenit W attack 2.01 + Spartak Moskva W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Moskva W scores more
38%
level
26%
Zenit W scores more
37%

Spartak Moskva W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Spartak Moskva W 1–4 Zenit W

Zenit W beat Spartak Moskva W 4-1 in Supreme Division Women on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 1 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.