Spartak Moskva W 2–0 Yenisey W: Result & Stats

Spartak Moskva W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yenisey W

4/14/2024

Supreme Division Women · Round 5Futbol'noe pole 1 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moskva W73%

×Draw18%

Yenisey W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moskva WExpected goals in this matchYenisey W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.60

Spartak Moskva W

2.15

Yenisey W

0.60

Spartak Moskva W creates 258% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

2.27

creates per match

0.48

0.73

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Spartak Moskva W

2.27

Yenisey W

0.48

allows per match

Spartak Moskva W

0.73

Yenisey W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moskva W+0.00on par

Yenisey W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva W ↓

Yenisey W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva W or draw

91%

Spartak Moskva W or Yenisey W

82%

Draw or Yenisey W

27%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva W wins by 2+

48%

Yenisey W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva W 1+ goals

88%

Spartak Moskva W 2+ goals

63%

Spartak Moskva W 3+ goals

36%

Yenisey W 1+ goals

45%

Yenisey W 2+ goals

12%

Yenisey W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva W (draw refunded)

89%

Yenisey W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Yenisey W away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.03 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva W attack 2.27 + Yenisey W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.15

Yenisey W attack 0.48 + Spartak Moskva W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Spartak Moskva W scores more

73%

level

18%

Yenisey W scores more

9%

Spartak Moskva W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Spartak Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff