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Spartak Moskva W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Spartak Moskva W
Spartak Moskva W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
6/23/2024Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 13Futbol'noe pole 1 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moskva W42%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Moskva W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva W
1.47
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.25

Spartak Moskva W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva W
2.27
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.76

allows per match

Spartak Moskva W
0.73
Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.67

finishing

Spartak Moskva W+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva W or draw
68%
Spartak Moskva W or Lokomotiv Moskva W
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva W wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva W 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Moskva W 2+ goals
43%
Spartak Moskva W 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva W (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva W attack 2.27 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Spartak Moskva W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Moskva W scores more
42%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
32%

Spartak Moskva W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moskva W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W

Spartak Moskva W and Lokomotiv Moskva W drew 0-0 in Supreme Division Women on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 1 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.