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Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Spartak Moskva W
Spartak Moskva W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
11/2/2025Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 25Cherenkov Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moskva W36%
×Draw25%
CSKA Moskva W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva W
1.37
CSKA Moskva W
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva W
2.27
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Spartak Moskva W
0.73
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Spartak Moskva W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva W or draw
61%
Spartak Moskva W or CSKA Moskva W
75%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
64%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva W wins by 2+
16%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva W 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Moskva W 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Moskva W 3+ goals
16%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
77%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
42%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva W (draw refunded)
48%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva W attack 2.27 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Spartak Moskva W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moskva W scores more
36%
level
25%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
39%

CSKA Moskva W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W

Spartak Moskva W and CSKA Moskva W drew 2-2 in Supreme Division Women on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Cherenkov Academy Stadium in Moscow.