Spartak Moskva U20 1–0 Rubin Kazan U20

Spartak Moskva U20

FT

1 – 0

Rubin Kazan U20

10/18/2019

Youth Championship · Round 13Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2055%

×Draw21%

Rubin Kazan U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchRubin Kazan U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.29

Spartak Moskva U20

2.05

Rubin Kazan U20

1.29

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

2.35

creates per match

1.32

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20

2.35

Rubin Kazan U20

1.32

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20

1.25

Rubin Kazan U20

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Rubin Kazan U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw

76%

Spartak Moskva U20 or Rubin Kazan U20

79%

Draw or Rubin Kazan U20

45%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+

32%

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals

87%

Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals

61%

Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals

33%

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals

72%

Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals

37%

Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Rubin Kazan U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.05

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.32 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more

55%

level

21%

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more

24%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff