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Spartak Moskva U20 vs Orenburg U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
FT
1 – 0
Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
9/28/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 11Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2060%
×Draw21%
Orenburg U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva U20
2.08
Orenburg U20
1.08

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20
2.35
Orenburg U20
0.91

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20
1.25
Orenburg U20
1.82

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw
81%
Spartak Moskva U20 or Orenburg U20
79%
Draw or Orenburg U20
40%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
37%
Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
87%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
61%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
34%
Orenburg U20 1+ goals
66%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
29%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
60%
level
21%
Orenburg U20 scores more
19%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moskva U20 vs Orenburg U20

Spartak Moskva U20 beat Orenburg U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak in Moskva.